Keir Starmer's Supporters Begin 'Stop Andy Burnham' Drive to Block Manchester Mayor's Commons Re-entry

Key supporters of Labour leader Keir Starmer have reportedly started a concerted initiative to block Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Mayor of Greater Manchester, from securing a return to the House of Commons. This action follows the stepping down of a Manchester MP, which has prompted an impending by-election.

Serious Obstacles in the Candidate Selection Procedure

A number of figures on the Labour Party's ruling national executive committee (NEC) have reportedly predicted it would be virtually impossible for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the candidate selection process. This is primarily due to the significant presence of supporters of the Prime Minister on the body who are keen to avoid any future leadership challenge.

The Labour hierarchy reportedly swung into action following the revelation of the MP's intended resignation, with officials and MPs raising concerns about the substantial financial cost and political risk of a resulting mayoral race in Greater Manchester.

The Mayor's Aspirations and Party Concerns

Andy Burnham has made no secret of his political ambitions. Previously, he prompted outrage in Downing Street and among senior ministers when he remarked that many MPs had encouraged him to run for the party leadership.

It has long been believed that he is aiming for a seat in the Commons to possibly contest the party leadership should a contest to Sir Keir arise. Nevertheless, allies of the Mayor have warned against overstating the extent of any planning, stating he is deeply committed to his job as mayor and would only re-enter national politics if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a supporter stated.

Political Landscape and Public Approval

Against a backdrop of polls suggesting Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs despondent about Labour's prospects at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham is seen as the sole senior Labour figure with favourable ratings with the public.

Should Mr. Burnham choose to stand, multiple obstacles remain. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the chances are stacked against him—and then win the byelection against competition from Reform UK and pro-Gaza independents, all prior to any possible leadership challenge.

The 'Stop Andy' Campaign

High-ranking Labour figures have indicated that a "Block Burnham" operation is already in progress, with the party's organisation being tightly controlled by key allies of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister himself commented that the by-election procedure was in its "early stages" and told his MPs to cease discussion of potential contests for the leadership.

Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's departure was confirmed, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Financial and Political Dangers

NEC members have reportedly cited not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could divert an estimated £500,000 in party funding from other crucial elections across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," an insider claimed.

A number of insiders also shared fears about Nigel Farage’s party potentially fill any vacancy left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant political win for them.

Union Influence and Democratic Concerns

Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to stand. It is also possible the body could enforce an women-only shortlist to prevent his candidacy.

Yet, a supporter counselled against assuming the NEC would simply reject him, despite Sir Keir's team is largely believed to control it.

The trade unions hold a significant number of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are for now keeping their counsel, insiders indicated they would be uncomfortable with anything seen as interference from Downing Street.

The leader of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

Electoral Challenges

The constituency in question has a considerable Labour lead. However, Reform UK is expected to launch a significant challenge, capitalising on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on firmer ground in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter some pressure from pro-Gaza independents.

Should Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to mount a leadership challenge, a hurdle that is not guaranteed given he is viewed with scepticism by a number of on the parliamentary party.

The resigning MP stated he was stepping down due to deteriorating mental health, which had made it untenable for him to carry on in his role. He also remains subject to a standards inquiry related to his membership in an inappropriate online group.